Forecasting the palladium demand: automotive industry focus
https://doi.org/10.26425/2658-3445-2026-9-1-136-151
Abstract
The purpose of the study is a comprehensive analysis of the key factors determining the dynamics of global demand for palladium, as well as the creation of forecast scenarios for its development until 2040, considering structural changes in the automotive industry. The market’s dependence on stricter environmental emission standards has been revealed, which stimulated the use of palladium in catalytic converters of gasoline engines.
Special attention has been paid to the structural shifts in the automotive industry caused by the transition to electric transport. The analysis has demonstrated that the rapid growth in sales of palladium-free battery electric vehicles is creating a long-term negative trend for demand. At the same time, it has been established that the segment of hybrid vehicles equipped with internal combustion engines remains a significant consumer of metal and acts as a key stabilizing factor in the market. Based on the scenario approach, three possible trajectories of the palladium market development have been constructed. Calculations has shown that aggregate demand will be determined by the balance between the growing production of hybrid vehicles and the continued production of traditional vehicles with internal combustion engines.
The conclusion about a possible reduction in the palladium market’s dependence on the automotive sector in the long term has been substantiated. The critical importance of demand diversification through developing new uses for the metal in hydrogen energy, electronics, and chemical synthesis has been emphasized.
About the Authors
A. E. Cherepovitsyn
Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexey E. Cherepovitsyn, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the
St. Petersburg
I. A. Mekerova
Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Irina A. Mekerova, Postgraduate Student
St. Petersburg
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Review
For citations:
Cherepovitsyn A.E., Mekerova I.A. Forecasting the palladium demand: automotive industry focus. E-Management. 2026;9(1):136-151. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26425/2658-3445-2026-9-1-136-151
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