Long-term scenarios for the development of financial-investment models of social security: threats and opportunities

Abstract

Financial and investment models of social security (hereinafter referred to as FIMSS) are critical for ensuring social stability and economic resilience of the state. Amid global demographic shifts, technological advancements, and climate challenges, there is a pressing need to adapt social security systems to emerging realities. The relevance of the study lies in the necessity to analyse the historical evolution of the FIMSS and to identify pathways for their modernisation to ensure long-term financial sustainability. The research aims to explore the transformation of the FIMSS and assess their potential in addressing contemporary social challenges based on global experience. The study employs methods of historical analysis, scenario modeling, and evaluation of the financial sustainability of the social security systems. It is found that traditional FIMSS face limitations under demographic pressures and technological shifts, with their financial stability requiring innovative risk management approaches. The results indicate that the adaptation of the FIMSS necessitates forward-looking strategies, including technology integration and reevaluation of funding sources. The proposals include optimising the social security systems through the development of universal programmes and strengthening the state’s role in managing social risks. In conclusion, the study highlights the importance of a comprehensive approach to reforming the FIMSS to meet the challenges of the 21st century.